A grain ship is hit in the Black Sea. A US sub is spotted 5,000 miles away. Coincidence?

The numbers of Bear-F/J (Tu-142) and May (Il-38), Russia’s submarine-hunting maritime surveillance aircraft, are even lower. Russia needs these planes in its Northern and Pacific fleets so that it can operate effectively against US and allied nuclear subs and – it hopes – prevent its nuclear deterrent subs being followed: it cannot normally spare any maritime planes for its Black Sea fleet. Tu-142s were sent to the Black Sea for a period in 2021, before the wider war there broke out, but none are permanently assigned.

This matters, because the other thing . . .