Gulf, Caribbean Being Watched By National Hurricane Center
Written by Black Hot Fire Network on September 21, 2024
- An area in the northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf is being watched.
- This region could see a tropical depression or storm develop late in the week ahead.
- Details remain uncertain, but the U.S. Gulf Coast should stay updated on the forecast.
- Late week is the earliest this possible system could threaten the U.S.
A tropical storm could form in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico late in the week ahead, but details on its potential intensity, track and timing remain uncertain. Interests along the entire U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the situation closely and stay updated on how the forecast unfolds in the days ahead.
The area to watch: The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico for the possible formation of a tropical depression or storm. At this time, there is no system to track in this region.
A broad area of low pressure called the Central American Gyre is expected to form over Central America early in the week, giving rise to increasingly stormy weather. We have seen an uptick in thunderstorm activity over Central America and the western Caribbean over the last couple of days, which is the first step toward that gyre forming.
When a tropical storm could develop: The middle to end of the week is when the window opens for the possible formation of a tropical depression or storm in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf from this broad area of low pressure. The next storm name is Helene.
For that to happen, the broader Central American Gyre would need to spin off a more well-defined low-pressure system with persistent shower and thunderstorm activity. This typically happens over the course of multiple days after a gyre forms.
If a storm forms, here’s where it might track: This possible storm could track north or northeast toward the U.S. Gulf Coast or northwest toward the southwest Gulf.
Exactly when and where the system forms, assuming it does at all, and how much of an influence there is from a southward plunge of the jet stream tracking eastward over the central U.S. next week will play a role in where it tracks.
The greater the influence from that jet stream, the more likely the system would get drawn north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. If it has less of an influence, then the system might move northwest toward the southwest Gulf, possibly stalling for a time, with its future track beyond that point uncertain.
The timing of any potential U.S. impact might not be until at the earliest late week or beyond.
Could it become a hurricane? It’s certainly possible. Oceanic heat content is one favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwest Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.
But there are other factors that also matter, like whether or not the upper-level wind pattern is favorable for strengthening. It’s also unknown if any nearby dry air or land interaction, such as with Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, could be hindrances to intensification.
For now, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the situation closely while also making sure hurricane preparedness plans are in place. Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates through the weekend and beyond as we fill in more details on what to expect.
