Conventional wisdom is that U.S. presidential elections are not typically decided by foreign policy issues. However, this year, the prominence of foreign policy topics since election campaigning began and their high profile in recent presidential debates suggest these issues hold some importance for voters.
A survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment in late August 2024 revealed significant insights into registered voters’ priorities concerning the foreign policy challenges that are prominent in this election cycle:
Immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border (50 percent) and climate change (40 percent) were the highest-ranked foreign policy concerns among all registered voters, followed by the Israel-Hamas war (35 percent) and the Russia-Ukraine war and relations with China (tied at 28 percent).
Foreign policy concerns were similar for undecided voters. Climate change and immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border were tied for most importance (42 percent), followed by the war between Israel and Hamas (30 percent).
Among undecided voters, over half lacked confidence in either candidate’s ability to handle foreign policy issues effectively, while a significant minority preferred Trump regarding relations with China, the Israel-Hamas war, immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, and the Russia-Ukraine war. In contrast, Harris was favored on climate change. However, neither candidate had majority support on these issues.
The level of importance assigned to these issues varied across racial groups. Black voters (48 percent) ranked climate change as their top foreign policy concern, while Hispanic (51 percent) and White (52 percent) respondents prioritized immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border.
The full results of the survey, conducted by the Carnegie Endowment’s American Statecraft Program in conjunction with YouGov, are available here.
In what is shaping up to be a tight presidential race, with some voters disillusioned with candidates’ commitments on domestic and foreign policy issues, this article takes a closer look at undecided voters and racial minorities. It examines how important foreign policy is to their self-reported voting intentions and how they evaluate candidates’ ability in managing foreign policy challenges. These groups could sway the election; understanding their takes on key issues is critical.
A Narrow Presidential Race
Restricting the analysis to nationally registered voters (N=1,983), 45 percent of respondents planned to vote for Kamala Harris, 42 percent intended to vote for Donald Trump, 4 percent intended to vote for a third party or independent candidate, 3 percent did not intend to vote at all, and 6 percent were not sure who they would vote for. Taken together, two months before the election, roughly 12 percent of our sample were not decided on either Harris or Trump—a group likely to determine the outcome of the election in November (see table 1).