Kenya Elections Face Rising Violence Concerns

Kenya faces a critical juncture as it prepares for the 2026 general election. With declining trust in the election system and weakening international restraints on political violence, proactive measures are needed to prevent potential instability.

Election Credibility and Incumbency

Historically, significant election-related violence in Kenya has been linked to the presence of an incumbent seeking re-election. Of the seven competitive presidential elections since 1991, violence was most pronounced in four instances, all involving incumbents. Conversely, elections without an incumbent, such as those in 2002, 2013, and 2022, experienced comparatively less violence, even when the election’s credibility was questioned. Strengthening election credibility and limiting state interference are key safeguards.

Challenges to the IEBC

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) faces credibility challenges following its reconstitution last year. The process was marred by controversy stemming from the president’s initial disregard for a court order regarding commissioner appointments. Subsequent by-elections were characterized by violence and further eroded public confidence in the commission’s impartiality.

The Role of the Media

The Kenyan media plays a crucial role in bolstering election credibility. Historically, a reluctance to independently verify and report vote tallies has undermined public trust. The 2022 election presented a missed opportunity in this regard. Moving forward, media outlets should collaborate, invest in data journalism, and independently verify results, even when it creates discomfort with those in power. The media must also actively counter the growing threat of online disinformation, particularly with the increasing sophistication of artificial intelligence.

Regional and International Context

Regional and international pressures have previously helped restrain political elites in Kenya, but these influences are diminishing. Across East Africa, governments are increasingly normalizing repression around elections, as seen in Tanzania and Uganda. Simultaneously, a broader decline in global accountability, exemplified by Western support for Israel’s actions in Gaza, has weakened international norms and institutions.

Internal Defenses and Citizen Action

Given the evolving circumstances, Kenya must prioritize internal reforms to insulate state institutions from political interference. While the recommended timeline for electoral rule changes has passed, 2026 offers an opportunity to rebuild coalitions of civil society organizations, the church, the media, and youth groups to counter potential state repression. The recent Gen Z protests demonstrate the potential of youth activism in the political landscape.

Preventing violence in 2026 requires urgent action to protect electoral transparency and mobilize citizen action as a shield against abuse of state power.