Nigeria South Africa to Increase Fossil Fuel Output

Fossil Fuel Production Plans Diverge from Climate Goals

Recent reports indicate that many of the 20 countries producing 80% of the world’s oil, gas, and coal are planning to continue drilling and mining for fossil fuels at rates that exceed what is considered safe for the climate, given the global goal of limiting temperature rise to less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The 2025 Production Gap Report, authored by scientists including Emily Ghosh, Derik Broekhoff, Bathandwa Vazi, and Olivier Bois von Kursk, highlights this concerning trend.

How much fossil fuel are South Africa and Nigeria planning to produce?

The Nigerian government’s latest production targets indicate a desire to nearly double oil output over the next five years, aiming for three million barrels per day by 2030. Nigeria also intends to increase gas production by 75% from 2024 levels by 2030. These production increases do not align with Nigeria’s climate commitments, which include a pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29% by 2030 and 32% by 2035, and to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

South Africa’s draft Gas Utilisation Master Plan outlines plans to increase domestic gas production from offshore fields and import liquefied natural gas. While plans for future coal and oil production are not readily available, the country recently launched the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company, which is likely to expand domestic fossil fuel production.

Risks of Continued Fossil Fuel Reliance

If South Africa and Nigeria do not transition away from fossil fuels quickly, they face significant risks. Shifting to cheaper renewable energy could improve energy security, lower costs, and reduce the risk of stranded assets. However, continued investment in fossil fuels leaves both countries vulnerable to price shocks and oil price cycles.

Experts disagree on the future of global oil demand, with some forecasting a peak before 2030 and a subsequent decline, while others predict continued growth through 2050. A decline in demand could lead to stranded assets in Nigeria, impacting government revenues and services.

Furthermore, expanding oil production in Nigeria’s Niger Delta region could exacerbate existing ecological devastation, impacting agriculture, fisheries, and public health. South Africa risks facing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms if it continues to rely on coal-fired power, making its goods less competitive globally and undermining its Just Transition framework.

Bridging the Gap Between Promises and Actions

Nigeria’s latest climate pledge, its nationally determined contribution (NDC), promises to reduce the country’s emissions by 29% before 2030. However, the country is simultaneously trying to revive its onshore oil industry, purchasing assets from Shell and Equinor and planning to resume operations. This creates a significant gap between Nigeria’s climate promises and its actions.

South Africa’s energy sector already generates the highest levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the country. The national energy plan proposes adding new fossil fuel-based power generation capacity over the next five years, with nearly 30% of new energy capacity coming from coal and gas. This could jeopardize South Africa’s commitment to reduce emissions by 27% by 2035.

What Needs to Happen Next?

The 20 countries producing the majority of the world’s fossil fuels have not adequately reduced production or emissions. To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, these countries must accelerate their transition away from fossil fuels.

South Africa and Nigeria need clear plans to align fossil fuel production with their climate commitments, including halting investments in new fossil fuel projects and supporting workers in transitioning to green jobs. These plans should also ensure that communities dependent on fossil fuel industries can find alternative livelihoods. By taking these steps, countries can signal a commitment to a well-planned and equitable green energy transition.