What An Unpredictable Premier League 2024/25 Teaches Us

By definition, even in an era where Manchester City has swept up six of the last seven titles, the Premier League is a challenge to forecast. Reaching its midpoint, this season sums that up perfectly. From pundits’ instincts to AI projections, hardly anyone could picture the scene before kickoff in August.

Usurped by a convincing Liverpool at the top, Man City has tumbled off a cliff. Meanwhile, overachieving Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and Fulham will target European soccer in 2025. Languishing in the lower half of the table, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur—for all their fragilities—are having one of their worst openings in recent memory.

Within this, there are other curiosities: Brentford finding a formula to net in the first minute of three consecutive games; Arsenal, long associated with artful offensive patterns, becoming imperious from corner kicks; Forest’s robust Chris Wood emerging as a bountiful goalscorer at the age of 33.

So, particularly when examining the makings of a successful team, what can we glean from various clubs’ performances up and down the English top flight so far?

Liverpool’s Marginal Gains Are Huge

Brentford (making the most of its home games with seven wins) catching teams cold from the start and Arsenal’s threat from set pieces are examples of sides stealing an edge over opponents. Yet perhaps the most telling case of marginal gains is at Anfield.

When someone replaces a figure of Jürgen Klopp’s ilk, you wonder about possible wholesale changes to reflect the new coach. But the man himself, Arne Slot, hasn’t torn up the trusty playbook. He’s inherited the core of Liverpool’s enviable squad, with only €12 million ($13 million) spent on winger Federico Chiesa. And the Dutch boss has maintained its high-energy traits, just making a few tweaks here and there.

Those adjustments include getting more from the strikers in front of goal; Mohamed Salah (upping his excellent output), Luis Díaz, Cody Gakpo, and friends still track back, but the more controlled possession-based style allows each to spend more time hurting teams in the final third. On balance, there is less wildness about Liverpool, seemingly a little more assured at both ends of the park and happy to win unspectacularly.

Concerns surfaced following the quiet transfer window, but Liverpool has focused on chemistry and getting the most from its existing options. On the first point, recruitment is selective; contingents of Dutch and Spanish-speaking players to help each other along in a primarily English language environment. Plus, not signing players to block the pathway of graduates like Curtis Jones, who is at home in the midfield after strong coaching year after year.

Dynasties Fall

There are some concrete reasons for City’s almighty drop—the remarkable development this term. As well as key midfielder Rodri’s absence, a somewhat depleted and jaded squad is one explanation for one win, three draws, and nine losses in the last 13 matches across all competitions.

What’s more captivating is the psychology around this reverse in results, as Pep Guardiola’s lineup swaps title ambitions for a push to make the Champions League places. Confidence and momentum are invaluable at the peak of professional sport. And until now, City has been an unbreakable force steamrolling to silverware every year.

However, when the wheels fall off, clawing everything back proves grueling. Guardiola’s teams aren’t programmed to recover from fractures because they aren’t supposed to exist in the first place. Equally, whereas the aura of City alone had already put challengers on the back foot, that’s now out of the window. There’s no need to feel bewitched anymore.

Then there’s the hearing into Manchester City’s alleged breaches of Premier League rules—which it denies—that is perhaps on the club’s mind. All these factors, some more tangible than others, have contributed to the fall. As rival Man United knows too well, dominance isn’t eternal. It’s surprisingly delicate.

Be Adaptable, Not Stubborn

Assessing the most feared XIs over the past decade, such as Guardiola’s commanding ensembles at Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and City, or Klopp’s vibrant Liverpool, it’s easy to think achievement comes from an idealistic way of playing the game.

This campaign proposes new truths. Being tactically flexible rather than solely sticking to principle brings rewards. As frustrated Spurs coach Ange Postecoglou—admittedly dealing with a host of injury setbacks—insists on an expansive yet vulnerable style of soccer, as departing Southampton boss Russell Martin did, names like Forest and Fulham have chosen a style that works best for the players at hand, identifying ways to outmaneuver ostensibly superior opponents.

Spurs’ Postecoglou and Man United’s Ruben Amorim’s beliefs may eventually yield results. For now, being adaptable is paying dividends as the league’s natural order morphs into something else. It could be even more surprising in the new year.