ACLED Report: African Developments in July 2025

June witnessed a significant shift in Mali’s ongoing conflict with the departure of the Wagner Group and the subsequent deployment of Africa Corps, operating under the direct supervision of the Russian Ministry of Defense. This transition coincided with a marked increase in violence across multiple regions.

Escalation of Violence and Allegations of Atrocities

Following the arrival of Africa Corps, Malian armed forces (FAMa) and Africa Corps forces initiated a series of airstrikes and ground offensives targeting strongholds of the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in northern and central Mali. Operations in Kidal resulted in accusations of mass atrocities against Malian military and Africa Corps forces. Reports indicate civilians were allegedly executed, burned alive, or thrown into wells in Ibdakan, Eghacher-Sediden, and Abelel between June 25 and 26.

Airpower played a substantial role in the intensified conflict, with both sides conducting aerial and drone strikes in central and northern Mali. These strikes resulted in civilian casualties. June recorded the highest levels of fatalities in Mali during 2025, comparable to the levels observed in March 2022 when Islamic State militants launched an offensive in the Menaka region.

JNIM Operations and Propaganda

JNIM continued its operations against FAMa and Africa Corps throughout June, maintaining a consistent attack rate despite a slight decrease in the total number of incidents compared to the previous month. The group utilized improvised explosive devices (IEDs), guided IEDs, and drone strikes in regions including Segou, Mopti, Koulikoro, and Kidal. Beginning in May, JNIM began referring to Africa Corps as “Faylaq al-Russi” (the Russian Legion) in its media statements, a strategic move to portray Africa Corps as a foreign occupying force.

JNIM executed several large-scale attacks, notably in Timbuktu, Mahou, and Boulkessi, demonstrating its capacity for complex operations targeting military convoys and fixed positions.

FLA Activity and Claims

June marked a period of heightened activity for the FLA since renewed hostilities began in August 2023, with operations concentrated in the Kidal region. A significant event was a large-scale ambush on a FAMa and Africa Corps logistics convoy near Aguelhok on June 13. The FLA claimed to have destroyed over 20 vehicles and inflicted numerous casualties, including among Africa Corps personnel. While FAMa initially denied the incident, they later confirmed the attack and reported a counter-attack supported by airstrikes.

The FLA also employed landmines against troops and conducted strikes on convoys in Eghacher-Sediden and Kal Relle Tadjmart. The group claimed responsibility for forcing down a Malian Su-24M fighter jet near Gao on June 14, although the army attributed the crash to adverse weather conditions. The FLA amplified its messaging by accusing FAMa and Africa Corps of targeting civilians in northern Mali, reinforcing its narrative of defending the people of Azawad.