ADP reports US businesses added just 98,000 jobs in June, missing forecasts

The US labor market is cooling off, and the latest payroll data just made that harder to ignore. ADP’s National Employment Report showed private-sector employers added 98,000 jobs in June, a meaningful step down from the 122,000 added in May and well below the consensus forecast of 110,000 to 120,000.

Where the jobs are, and where they aren’t

The June report, produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, draws on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million US workers.

Education and health services carried most of the load, adding 48,000 jobs on their own. That’s nearly half the total. Financial activities contributed another 14,000 positions.

On the other end of the spectrum, leisure and hospitality continued its prolonged slump. The sector has now posted weak hiring for six consecutive months.

Wage growth, meanwhile, told a slightly different story. Annual pay for workers who stayed in their jobs rose 4.4% year-over-year. Those who switched employers did even better, seeing gains of 6.6%.

What this means for the Fed, and for markets

Bitcoin’s immediate reaction to the ADP print was subdued, influenced by rising Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.

What crypto investors should be watching

The ADP report is just the appetizer. The official nonfarm payrolls number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which typically follows a couple of days after the ADP release, will provide the more authoritative read.

But there are real counterweights in play right now. Rising Treasury yields offer a competing safe-haven return that draws capital away from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The Fed’s continued hawkish tone suggests policymakers aren’t in a rush to deliver the cuts that markets are pricing in. And the 4.4% wage growth figure gives the Fed a reasonable excuse to stay patient.