African forests now emit more carbon than they absorb

Recent research indicates a significant shift in Africa’s forests, transforming them from carbon sinks to carbon sources. This development presents a challenge to global climate change mitigation efforts.

Study Findings and Timeline

A new international study, published in *Scientific Reports* and led by scientists from the Universities of Leicester, Sheffield, and Edinburgh, reveals that African forests have begun releasing more carbon than they absorb. This reversal began after 2010 and underscores the need for intensified global forest protection. The research was conducted in conjunction with the recent COP30 Climate Summit in Brazil, where forest conservation was a key topic.

Satellite Data and Forest Biomass Loss

Researchers analyzed over a decade of forest data using advanced satellite observations and machine learning techniques. The focus was on aboveground forest biomass, a key indicator of carbon storage. The analysis showed that between 2007 and 2010, Africa’s forests were accumulating carbon. However, widespread deforestation and degradation, particularly in tropical rainforests, led to a decline starting in 2010.

From 2010 to 2017, approximately 106 billion kilograms of forest biomass were lost annually, equivalent to the weight of 106 million cars. Significant losses occurred in tropical moist broadleaf forests, notably in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and parts of West Africa. While some savanna areas experienced increases due to shrub growth, these gains were insufficient to offset the overall losses.

Implications for Climate Policy

The findings highlight the critical need for deeper greenhouse gas emission reductions globally to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study emphasizes the importance of scaling up climate finance for initiatives like the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, which aims to end deforestation. The research also coincides with the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, an initiative designed to raise billions of pounds to support climate finance and incentivize forest preservation.

Mapping Forest Carbon Changes

The study utilized data from NASA’s GEDI laser instrument and Japan’s ALOS radar satellites, combined with machine learning and ground-based forest measurements. This approach enabled the creation of a detailed map of biomass changes across Africa, capturing local deforestation patterns over a decade.

Potential Solutions and Global Impact

Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large-scale restoration programs like AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of African landscapes by 2030, are identified as potential solutions to reverse forest loss. The study also underscores the broader impact on the voluntary carbon market (VCM) and the global carbon balance. Continued forest degradation could significantly hinder the achievement of global climate goals, requiring collaborative efforts from governments, the private sector, and non-governmental organizations to protect and enhance forests.

The project received funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Space Agency (ESA), and a network of partner institutions across Europe and Africa.