Africa’s growth outlook faces fresh climate threat as AfDB warns powerful El Niño could wipe out $20bn, shrink GDP and trigger migration

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Although it develops thousands of kilometres from Africa, it disrupts global weather systems, often bringing severe drought to Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding to parts of East Africa, with devastating consequences for agriculture, food supplies and economic activity.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the current event is strengthening rapidly and is expected to peak between late 2026 and early 2027. While the phrase “super El Niño” is widely used in media reports, the WMO officially classifies events by strength, weak, moderate, strong and very strong.

The warning comes at a critical time for the continent. In May, the AfDB forecast Africa’s economy would expand by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing regions.

A stronger-than-expected El Niño now threatens to undermine that outlook just as many countries begin emerging from years of high inflation, elevated borrowing costs and currency pressures.

According to Reuters, which interviewed AfDB’s Director of Climate Change and Green Growth, Anthony Nyong, countries hardest hit by the weather phenomenon could each lose between 1% and 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) as droughts, floods and storms disrupt agriculture, destroy infrastructure and strain government finances.

“Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1% to 2% on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent,” Nyong told Reuters.

The estimate is the first continent-wide assessment by a major multilateral development bank of the likely economic cost of an exceptionally strong El Niño.

Nyong cautioned that the damage would extend well beyond immediate disaster losses, affecting food production, banking systems, government budgets and long-term development.

Agriculture, food prices under threat

Agriculture is expected to bear the brunt of the climate shock. Millions of Africans depend on rain-fed farming, making the continent particularly vulnerable to prolonged droughts and extreme rainfall.

Reduced harvests could push up the prices of staple foods, lower export earnings and deepen food insecurity across vulnerable regions.

The AfDB estimates African farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while fisheries are also expected to suffer from rising sea temperatures and increasingly severe storms.

The previous El Niño event between 2023 and 2024 brought severe drought to Southern Africa and destructive floods to East Africa, causing widespread crop failures, livestock losses and sharp increases in food prices across several countries.

Beyond agriculture, the AfDB warned that governments could come under even greater fiscal pressure.

Extreme weather events often force countries to divert funds from healthcare, education and infrastructure projects towards emergency relief and reconstruction, increasing borrowing needs and delaying development priorities.

Nyong described this as a growing “climate finance trap”, where countries with limited fiscal space repeatedly sacrifice long-term investment to respond to increasingly frequent climate disasters.

The bank also warned that damage to roads, ports, power infrastructure and water systems could weaken banking sectors if governments struggle to repay loans used to rebuild damaged assets.

The AfDB said prolonged drought and repeated flooding could accelerate migration from heavily affected communities as households lose crops, livestock and other sources of income.

Countries across the Sahel have already endured years of worsening drought, while Mozambique continues to recover from the long-term economic effects of Cyclone Idai, highlighting how climate disasters can weigh on growth for years after the immediate crisis has passed.

The WMO has urged governments to use seasonal forecasts and early warning systems to prepare for possible heatwaves, droughts, floods and other extreme weather events expected over the coming months.

According to the UN weather agency, El Niño conditions have already developed and are forecast to strengthen rapidly, increasing risks for climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, water resources, health and energy.

For Africa, where climate change is already amplifying weather extremes despite the continent contributing only a small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, the challenge extends beyond disaster response.

If the forecasts materialise, policymakers may find themselves confronting another major economic shock, this time driven not by inflation, debt or geopolitical tensions, but by one of the strongest El Niño events in recent history, with consequences that could reverberate across food systems, public finances and economic growth for years to come.