Africa’s River Basins Adapt to Climate Change Impacts

Ten study sites were selected across ten African river basins, considering geographical, socio-economic, and political factors. Challenges were encountered during site selection, including ongoing conflict in Eastern Congo. The research aimed to understand local perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies.

Data collection and analysis

Villages were selected along the river basins, accessible by road. Focus group discussions (FDGs) were conducted with village elders (above 55 years old) to formulate a semi-structured questionnaire suitable for each site. The questionnaire addressed observed climatic changes, impacts on local agriculture, and adaptation responses. Data on local agents of change empowering communities and perceived adaptation challenges were also collected. An average of 38 randomly selected households (total n = 150 per river basin study site) were interviewed, aiming for a 50/50 male/female split, with the head of the household prioritized. Selection followed a walking-along-the-road method, which may have inadvertently favored wealthier households in some locations. Data collected included household characteristics, observed climatic changes, impacts on agriculture, adaptation responses, climate change literacy, and climate information services. The methodology was based on the “Local Indicator of Climate Change Impacts” framework, revised to differentiate climatic changes and impacts, adhering to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Interviews were conducted in local languages by local correspondents and co-authors between September 2024 and July 2025. Informed consent was obtained orally, emphasizing voluntary participation and confidentiality. Researchers were often from the same tribal group as the study participants, and respondents were primarily subsistence farmers.

Challenges and potential opportunities

Monthly webinars were held with co-authors to share insights across study sites. The team shifted focus to include opportunities identified in some sites that could be viewed as challenges in others. The top three major challenges and opportunities were identified at each site.

Transformational adaptation to curb climate change impacts

Team members assessed transformational adaptation processes using a framework that considers change agents learning, generalization of pathways, impacts across sectors and scales, and sustainability. Sites were graded on a scale from 0 (incremental change) to 5 (highly transformational change) based on five factors. This assessment aims to characterize transformational change based on social dynamics and multiple factors.

Study limitations

The study did not assess the effectiveness or long-term sustainability of adaptation responses. It focused on the impacts of climate change on farmers’ livelihoods, but did not fully account for other influencing factors such as population growth, technology, agricultural policies, and globalization. Adaptation measures were primarily behavioral rather than technological or science-based. Rural-to-urban migration was not identified as a response to climate change adaptation. The selection of villages based on road accessibility may have introduced bias by favoring wealthier households in certain areas. Gender analysis was limited due to the predominantly male-headed households. Future research should involve local and national stakeholders in developing climate change adaptation measures.

Ethics statement

The research received approval from Tongji University in China. Informed consent was obtained from all participants, and local community authorities were consulted prior to the study. Ethical guidelines from the British Sociological Association were followed during data collection.