Analysis: Will Fuel Prices Rise Again in Kenya? What June’s EPRA Review Could Mean | Dawan Africa

Kenya, June 06, 2026 – As Kenyans await the next fuel price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), one question is increasingly dominating conversations among households, businesses and transport operators: will fuel prices rise again in June?

The answer lies somewhere between global geopolitics, Kenya’s growing fuel demand and the government’s ability to cushion consumers from international oil shocks.

The latest review, announced in May, delivered one of the sharpest fuel price increases in recent years. Super Petrol in Nairobi rose by Sh16.65 per litre to Sh214.25 while Diesel jumped by Sh46.29 to Sh242.92 per litre.

The government was forced to tap the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) to cushion consumers from even higher prices.

Now attention has shifted to the June review expected around June 14.

One factor supporting higher prices is Kenya’s own growing appetite for petroleum products.

Data from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows petroleum demand rose by 8.38 percent in the second half of 2025 to 3.16 million cubic metres.

Consumption was particularly strong during the festive season, reflecting increased mobility and economic activity.

The Petroleum Institute of East Africa (PIEA) also reported that total fuel consumption rose 10.7% in 2025 to 6.55 million cubic metres, reversing a slowdown recorded in previous years when high prices suppressed demand.

Transport, manufacturing, construction and agriculture were among the key drivers of growth.

This means Kenya is entering the June pricing cycle at a time when domestic demand remains relatively strong.

The more significant factor, however, remains developments in the Middle East.

Since February, tensions involving the United States, Iran and allied groups across the region have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

Tanker traffic through Hormuz remains below normal levels despite ongoing negotiations, while uncertainty over a lasting peace deal continues to support oil prices. Brent crude was trading around $94.53 per barrel on June 5, while U.S. crude stood at $92.61.

The situation remains fragile.

According to reports, U.S. oil exports have surged to record levels as global buyers seek alternative supplies, causing inventories to tighten and raising concerns about future price spikes.

At the same time, tanker movements through the Gulf remain heavily disrupted, with analysts reporting that significant volumes of oil exports continue to face logistical challenges.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has maintained that fuel prices would be significantly higher were it not for government intervention through stabilization measures.