Climate Change and Instability: The Lake Chad Basin and Sahel Regions

Climate Change and Conflict: The African Union Addresses the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel Regions

The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is set to convene on May 4th for a critical session focused on the escalating impact of climate change on the crisis-ridden Lake Chad Basin and Sahel regions. This 1344th session, chaired by Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the AU, Nasir Aminu, will feature statements from key AU officials and regional bodies, highlighting the growing urgency of the climate-security nexus.

A Long-Standing Concern, Now a Dedicated Focus

The climate, peace, and security agenda has been a consistent priority for the PSC since 2016. Initially addressed in broader discussions, the issue has gained increasing prominence, leading to two annual sessions dedicated to the topic – a total of over 18 sessions to date. This upcoming session marks a significant shift, representing the first dedicated engagement specifically focused on the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel.

A Complex Web of Interacting Factors

The crises in these regions are rooted in a complex interplay of environmental stress, livelihood challenges, demographic pressures, governance deficits, and insecurity. Climate change isn’t a direct cause of conflict, but rather acts as a “threat multiplier,” exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. It amplifies risks, undermines livelihoods, and fuels conflicts through extreme weather events like droughts and floods.

The Lake Chad Basin: Shrinking Waters, Rising Tensions

In the Lake Chad Basin, the dramatic shrinkage of Lake Chad – once 25,000 km² and now fluctuating between 8,000 and 14,000 km² – is largely attributed to climate change and desertification. This has led to livelihood losses and increased vulnerability to violent extremism, particularly impacting communities reliant on the lake’s resources. While communities have historically adapted to fluctuating water levels, recent years have brought more frequent and intense flooding, coupled with rapid population growth, straining adaptive capacities and intensifying competition for scarce resources. The ongoing conflict further degrades the environment, disrupting agriculture and eroding local knowledge.

The Sahel: A Region on the Frontlines of Climate Change

The Sahel region is among the most vulnerable to climate change globally, experiencing temperature increases 1.5 times faster than the global average. With 60-80% of the population dependent on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, pastoralism, and fishing, the implications are profound. Climate-related security risks stem from the interaction of environmental stress and structural fragility, with livelihood insecurity often sparking conflict. Armed groups exploit weakened governance and economic hardship to recruit, while activities like charcoal production and artisanal mining worsen deforestation and finance insurgency. Climate-induced migration, once an adaptation strategy, now frequently leads to displacement and resource competition.

Governance and Early Warning: Key to Mitigation

Effective governance and institutional capacity are crucial in addressing the climate-security nexus. Weak state institutions, unable to manage resource competition and deliver basic services, create an environment where localized tensions can escalate into broader violence. Extremist organizations exploit these conditions, embedding themselves within local communities and leveraging grievances. Limitations in early warning systems, which are largely reactive and lack integrated climate indicators, further hinder preventative action.

Mobility and Feedback Loops

Climate-induced mobility, driven by the search for water, pasture, and economic opportunity, adds another layer of complexity. While historically a key adaptation mechanism, poorly regulated movements can fuel clashes between farmers and herders. Large-scale displacement places pressure on host communities, while restrictions on movement can undermine traditional coping strategies. A concerning feedback loop exists where insecurity disrupts agricultural production, and climate stress deepens poverty and governance fragility, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of environmental degradation and conflict.

AU Frameworks and Expected Outcomes

The AU has established several frameworks to address this nexus, including the African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan, the Africa Climate Security Risk Assessment, and the Regional Strategy for Stabilisation, Recovery, and Resilience (RS SRR 2.0) for the Lake Chad Basin. The upcoming PSC session is expected to result in a communiqué expressing grave concern over the deteriorating security situation and highlighting the role of climate change. Key expected outcomes include:

• Reaffirming the RS SRR 2.0 as a framework for addressing the Lake Chad Basin crisis.
• Emphasizing the integration of climate indicators into early warning systems.
• Calling for enhanced collaboration among Member States and regional mechanisms.
• Stressing the importance of strengthening governance and state presence.
• Underlining the need for adequate and equitable access to climate finance, including operationalizing the AU Special Fund for Climate Change.

The session underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach to address the complex interplay of climate change, conflict, and development in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel regions.