Economy to grow up to 6.1% in 2026

Ghana’s economy is projected to expand by between 5.9 per cent and 6.1 per cent in 2026, supported by growth in gold mining, major infrastructure investments and stronger foreign exchange buffers, the Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank, Mr Jibran Qureishi, has indicated.

He said the country’s better-than-expected performance in 2025, when growth reached six per cent against earlier projections of between 5.6 per cent and 5.8 per cent, had reinforced confidence in the medium-term outlook.

Mr Qureishi, who was speaking at a webinar organised by Stanbic Bank Ghana on the theme, “Positioning for what’s next: Navigating Ghana’s evolving market landscape”, noted that growth had exceeded expectations in 2025.

He explained that given the higher base, the bank still expected the economy to grow within the 5.9 per cent to 6.1 per cent range in 2026, with the potential to rise further to between 6.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent in 2027.

The revised outlook, he said, reflected a more positive assessment of Ghana’s growth trajectory, driven by both public investment and private sector activity in key sectors.

Mr Qureishi pointed to significant infrastructure spending as a major contributor to the improved outlook.

He cited projects such as the Tema Port expansion, commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Accra-Tema Motorway expansion and the reconstruction of the Kumasi Airport.

He noted that these projects were expected to generate multiplier effects across the economy.

He also indicated that enhanced oversight by the newly established coal board was expected to curb illicit activities in artisanal mining, a development that could attract new investment into the sector and improve efficiency.

On the monetary front, Mr Qureishi said the Bank of Ghana’s domestic gold purchase programme had become an important buffer against external shocks, despite recent accounting losses linked to high sterilisation costs arising from excess liquidity in the market.

He stated that the sterilisation costs had largely accounted for the losses recorded by the central bank.

However, he said discussions with policymakers suggested that authorities remained committed to the programme, given its long-term benefits to the country’s external position.

Standard Bank also maintained a positive medium-term outlook for gold prices, supported by strong demand from central banks in emerging markets and expectations of a possible decline in the dollar index.

Mr Qureishi said this outlook was significant for Ghana, as gold exports continued to increase despite global price volatility.

He further noted that foreign investor participation in Ghana’s domestic debt market had declined sharply to below five per cent, from nearly 40 per cent before the COVID-19 pandemic.

While this posed challenges for external financing, he explained that it had also shielded the economy from global portfolio volatility, effectively making Ghana a “low beta market” with reduced exposure to external shocks.

According to him, this structural shift could help Ghana sustain steady growth despite turbulence in global markets, providing a firm foundation for expansion in 2026 and beyond.

BY TIMES REPORTER

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