Experts Analyze Recent Developments

John Steenhuisen has announced he will not be available for re-election as the federal leader of South Africa’s Democratic Alliance (DA) at the party’s April federal congress. This decision comes amidst ongoing speculation about the reasons behind his departure.

The DA, the country’s main opposition party, is currently part of a government of national unity following the 2024 elections, in which the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority. Opinion polls indicate the DA’s support has increased, nearing 30%, while ANC support continues to decline. The DA promotes a federal view of government, a “social market” economy, and private-public cooperation.

Steenhuisen’s Background and Leadership

Steenhuisen became DA leader in 2019, a period of turbulence for the party. This followed the departure of Mmusi Maimane, the party’s first black leader, and a decline in support during the 2019 elections. The party faced accusations of prioritizing white support over a non-racial national profile. Steenhuisen’s announcement impacts the DA significantly, as two of the three most senior leadership positions will become vacant, including the federal leader and the chair of the federal council currently held by Helen Zille. This timing is particularly important given the upcoming local government elections at the end of the year. As the second-largest party in South Africa, the DA plays a crucial role in the Government of National Unity, and a new leader will influence the party’s relationship with the president and other unity government members.

How He Got Here

Steenhuisen built his political career in KwaZulu-Natal, a province considered a potential growth point within the DA. His assertive role as DA parliamentary chief whip contributed to his rise. As leader of the opposition, he shifted towards a more statesmanlike approach, tasked with leading a new strategy to broaden the party’s appeal. The 2024 election results indicate his leadership arrested the party’s electoral decline, resulting in a support increase from 20.8% to 21.8%. The DA’s participation in the Government of National Unity and the KwaZulu-Natal provincial government of unity, alongside consolidating its majority in the Western Cape, tested Steenhuisen’s leadership.

During coalition negotiations after the 2024 elections, journalist Mandy Wiener’s book details that Steenhuisen served as the DA’s principal, limiting his direct involvement in negotiations. He was often overshadowed by former DA leaders Helen Zille and Tony Leon.

Recent Challenges and Allegations

More recently, Steenhuisen has faced accusations of being too close to President Cyril Ramaphosa and of being “captured” by the ANC.

Reasons Behind Steenhuisen’s Decision

Neither Steenhuisen nor the DA has provided a clear explanation for his decision not to seek re-election, beyond his focus on his role as agriculture minister. Analysts suggest a lack of unqualified support within the party, particularly from the Western Cape, a crucial province controlling the provincial government and Cape Town metro. Steenhuisen’s KwaZulu-Natal base did not develop into a strong power base within the party.

His authority was undermined last year following the dismissal of DA member Dion George as the minister of forestry, fisheries and the environment. Steenhuisen had requested George’s removal due to “lack of performance.” George subsequently alleged Steenhuisen had abused his party credit card and referred the matter to the Public Protector, raising questions about Steenhuisen’s ethics.

Additionally, Steenhuisen is facing pressure as agriculture minister to control the spread of foot and mouth disease, with farmers advocating for greater private sector involvement in vaccinations.

Impact on the Democratic Alliance

Steenhuisen’s announcement creates vacancies for two of the three top positions within the DA at the upcoming congress. Only Ivan Meyer, the current federal chair, will remain. This situation could lead to a generational shift in leadership, a resurgence of Western Cape influence with potential candidates like Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, and increased representation of black individuals in key positions. The possibility of Hill-Lewis becoming party leader while continuing as Cape Town mayor could also create a dual power structure.

Steenhuisen’s Legacy

Steenhuisen views his future as a minister and not as a DA leader. Successfully managing the foot and mouth disease outbreak would be a significant achievement and a lasting legacy. Historically, he is likely to be regarded as a transitional leader who stabilized the party after 2019, recognized the need for alliance-building, and led the DA into national coalition politics.