Global Fund reduces Kenya’s HIV funding by 18pc in transition push

Disclosures by the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI), a global health organisation specialising in intelligence and data analysis, place Kenya among 13 sub-Saharan African countries facing significant HIV funding chops as global donor resources tighten, even as countries transition to domestic funding.

“Overall allocations across HIV, TB, and malaria are 17.9 percent lower than those of the previous three-year cycle. For HIV specifically, allocations across 13 sub-Saharan African countries included in CHAI’s analysis declined by an average of 18 percent, with reductions ranging from 9-34 percent at the country level,” the organisation said in its HIV market impact memo. These reductions follow a shortfall in the Global Fund’s latest replenishment.

The Fund had sought at least $18 billion (Sh2.3 trillion) for its Eighth Replenishment to support HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria programmes between 2027 and 2029. However, it secured about $9 billion (Sh1.2 trillion) in pledges, forcing it to make lower allocations to several high-burden countries.

Kenya’s reduction comes at a time when the country is also dealing with the near-total withdrawal of support from the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar), which analysts describe as one of the most significant HIV financing disruptions in more than two decades.

Meanwhile, around 1.4 million people are living with HIV, and another 1.4 million are currently receiving antiretroviral treatment.

The number of new infections increased from 16,752 in 2024 to 19,991 in 2025, reversing progress in reducing infections by over 67 percent since 2010. On average, 54 people become newly infected every day, and 57 people die daily from Aids-related illnesses.

Mother-to-child transmission remains at seven percent, which is above the global target of five percent.

Kenya had already experienced cuts in the previous grant cycle. Its Grant Cycle 7 allocation for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria was initially approved at $408 million (Sh52.6 billion), before being reduced to $354 million (Sh45.6 billion) due to global resource constraints.

The country has secured Sh12.3 billion from the Global Fund for the financial year starting in July, with HIV programmes accounting for Sh8.83 billion, more than 70 percent of the total. However, budget projections indicate that HIV funding will decline to Sh9.75 billion in 2027/28, before falling sharply to Sh4.47 billion in 2028/29.

This signifies a transition away from donor dependence. Under the Global Fund’s sustainability framework, countries are expected to finance an increasing proportion of their health programmes domestically.

“The Global Fund is also phasing out grants to 35 countries in GC8, with another 12 to follow in GC9. For many countries already absorbing reduced USG support, this is one of several major financing transitions occurring simultaneously,” the memo read.

On its part, Kenya has committed $593 million (Sh76.5 billion) from its own budget during the current cycle, with future allocations increasingly dependent on domestic co-financing. In its latest budget allocation, the Treasury allocated Sh18.5 billion for the Global Fund.

Since 2003, Kenya has received approximately $2 billion (Sh258 billion) from the Global Fund for tackling HIV, tuberculosis and malaria.