GTA 6 Could Have Devastating Effect On U.S. Economy

Grand Theft Auto 6 could cost the US economy almost $1 billion in a single day, according to new projections. After over a decade of waiting, two delays, and a lot of baseless speculation, GTA 6‘s release date is finally near. Its launch trailer is officially out, reaffirming a November 19 launch for the most anticipated game of the year/decade/millennium.

With all this excitement, you might expect GTA 6 to be a boon to the economy. Despite lots of handwringing about its unusually high price, it’s expected to generate billions in sales, with over 6 million copies already preordered (per Sensor Tower via GamesIndustry.biz). But, as it turns out, GTA 6‘s release could have a much more negative side effect on the American economy.

According to Barcelona-based economist José García Montalvo, the US economy could lose approximately $1 billion in output on November 19, as roughly 1.5 million Americans plan to take the day off work to play GTA 6 (via International Business Times). IBT cautions that this is an academic projection and not an official forecast, but there’s sound logic behind the theory.

First, it’s not unheard of for people to take time off work to play new games: it’s a fairly common phenomenon, especially when it comes to MMO expansions or hugely anticipated releases. IBT notes that some 2013 reports found that up to 6% of workers aged 18 to 35 in major American cities took the day off to play GTA 5.

Montalvo estimates that roughly 1.5 million Americans, mostly men ages 18 to 30, and largely working in the technology sector, will take the day off on November 19. At an average yearly output of about $70,000 per US worker, that’s a short-term productivity decrease of about 2%. IBT also suggests that workers who don’t take the day off could also contribute to the dip if they’re staying up late to play GTA 6, chatting with coworkers about the game, or watching streams during working hours.

But don’t worry, GTA 6 isn’t going to crash the economy. The money’s not disappearing; it’s simply flowing towards Take-Two Interactive and Rockstar Games. Coincidentally, Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick estimated on a recent earnings call that the company would take in more than $1 billion in operating cash flow this fiscal year — roughly the same amount lost in productivity due to GTA-related absences.

IBT also noted that at least one business is planning ahead for the November dip in productivity. California auto parts retailer Burger Motorsports released a statement to customers warning of shipping and support delays around GTA 6‘s release date, claiming that multiple staff members have already requested time off.

So, while the projection looks a bit worrying, the money’s not going anywhere, and the economy is likely to recover just fine by the following Monday as all the vacation-takers return to work. Still, the phenomenon speaks to just how influential Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to be — not just on video games or culture as a whole, but on the world at large.