Kenya Elections Face Rising Risk of Violence

Kenya faces a critical juncture as it prepares for the 2026 general election. With declining trust in the election system and weakening international restraints on political violence, the nation must take immediate steps to prevent potential instability.

Electoral History and Incumbency

Kenya’s experience since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1991 reveals a pattern: significant electoral violence has occurred primarily when an incumbent president seeks re-election. Of the seven competitive presidential elections held, violence was substantial in four instances, all featuring an incumbent candidate. Conversely, elections without an incumbent, such as those in 2002, 2013, and 2022, saw comparatively less violence, even when the election’s credibility was questioned. Strengthening electoral credibility and limiting state interference are identified as key safeguards.

Challenges to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)

Progress made since the disputed 2007 election, including constitutional checks on state power and reforms to the election system, is now at risk. The reconstitution of the IEBC last year was marred by controversy following the president’s initial disregard for a court order regarding commissioner appointments, damaging the commission’s credibility. Subsequent by-elections were also marked by violence and further eroded public confidence.

The Role of the Media

The Kenyan media is urged to assume a more active role in ensuring election transparency. Historically, media outlets have been hesitant to independently verify and report vote tallies, contributing to public distrust. The 2022 election presented a missed opportunity in this regard. Media organizations are encouraged to collaborate, invest in data journalism, and independently verify results, even when it challenges those in power. The rise of online disinformation, amplified by artificial intelligence, poses a significant threat, and a strong media is crucial for mitigating its impact.

Regional and International Context

Regional and international pressures that previously helped restrain Kenyan political elites are diminishing. Neighboring countries like Tanzania and Uganda are normalizing repression around elections. Simultaneously, a broader decline in global accountability, exemplified by Western support for Israel’s actions in Gaza, is undermining international norms and institutions.

Internal Defenses and Citizen Action

Given this challenging environment, Kenya must prioritize internal reforms to protect independent state institutions from political interference. While the recommended timeline for electoral rule changes has passed, 2026 offers an opportunity to rebuild coalitions involving civil society organizations, the church, the media, and youth groups like those who protested recently. Mobilizing citizen action is seen as a vital shield against abuse of state power.