Kenya ranked world’s second-riskiest democracy for election violence

The 2007/08 post-election violence in Kenya/FILE

Kenya has been ranked the second-most vulnerable democracy
to electoral violence ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to the
latest Electoral Vulnerability Index released by the Kofi Annan Foundation.

The report places Kenya behind only Nigeria among the top 10
democracies considered to be at the highest risk of election-related violence
during the 2026–2027 electoral cycle.

Kenya recorded a risk index of 43.9, with the foundation
projecting an 81.6 per cent likelihood of electoral violence.

The report also estimates a 6.2 per cent probability of
severe violence and a 75.4 per cent likelihood of moderate violence.

Overall, the Foundation estimates an 84.1 per cent
probability that Kenya could experience some form of electoral violence during
the 2027 polls, underscoring the need for early preventive measures, dialogue
and institutional preparedness.

The ranking comes at a time when political activity is
intensifying across the country as parties position themselves ahead of the
2027 elections.

Campaigns, coalition-building, and by-elections have already heightened political temperatures, raising concerns among governance experts about safeguarding peaceful political competition.

Kenya’s inclusion is high on the list, reviving painful memories
of the 2007–2008 post-election violence, one of the country’s darkest periods.

The unrest erupted following the disputed December 2007
presidential election in which the Electoral Commission declared late President Mwai Kibaki the winner over opposition leader Raila Odinga.

Allegations of electoral fraud sparked widespread protests
that quickly escalated into violence across several parts of the country.

The violence, which assumed political and ethnic dimensions
in many areas, claimed the lives of more than 1,100 people and displaced an
estimated 600,000 others, according to official and international reports.

Homes, businesses and public infrastructure were destroyed,
particularly in the Rift Valley, Nairobi, Nyanza and parts of Western and Coast
regions, leaving thousands in need of humanitarian assistance.

The crisis was eventually resolved through mediation led by
former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan under the African Union
Panel of Eminent African Personalities.

The negotiations culminated in the signing of the National
Accord and Reconciliation Act in February 2008, establishing a Grand Coalition
Government with Mwai Kibaki as President and Raila Odinga as Prime Minister.

The aftermath of the violence prompted sweeping
institutional reforms, including the promulgation of the Constitution of Kenya,
2010, changes to the electoral management body, judicial and police reforms,
and the establishment of institutions aimed at promoting national cohesion and
reconciliation.

Successive elections have also seen increased investment in
election preparedness, conflict monitoring and peace campaigns.

However, the latest Kofi Annan Foundation index suggests
that significant vulnerabilities remain.

The report is likely to renew calls on political leaders,
the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), security agencies,
civil society and religious organisations to work together to ensure the 2027
General Election is peaceful, credible and transparent.

According to the index, Nigeria tops the global ranking with
a risk index of 52.5 and a projected 90.5 per cent likelihood of electoral
violence. Kenya is followed by Fiji, Mongolia, Guatemala, Gambia, Armenia,
Lesotho and Brazil among the democracies identified as facing elevated risks
during upcoming elections.