Kenya’s El Nino Test: Turning climate forecasts into resilience

El Niño is once again drawing attention to East Africa’s exposure to climate extremes. Seasonal forecasts for October–December 2026 indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. For Kenya, the priority is to translate this climate information into timely, coordinated action while strengthening resilience beyond the current rainy season.

The Kenya Meteorological Department and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre provide seasonal climate outlooks to support preparedness and planning. These forecasts offer valuable lead time, but they express probabilities rather than certainties. The impacts of rainfall depend not only on where, when and how intensely it falls, but also on catchment conditions, river responses, infrastructure, land use and the vulnerability of exposed communities.