Lagos population to hit 16.2m by 2050 – World Bank  – Businessday NG

…Luanda to overtake Lagos as jobs challenge deepens 

…Onitsha to rise by 55.36%

Lagos’ population is projected to rise by more than 25% to 16.2 million by 2050, intensifying the need for infrastructure investment, affordable housing and productive job creation as Nigeria’s commercial hub grapples with rapid urban growth, according to the World Bank.

The Bank, in its new report, Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation, said sub-Saharan Africa would add 748 million urban residents between 2025 and 2050, presenting an opportunity to expand economic activity and create jobs if governments adopt policies that make cities more productive.

The report projects that Lagos, which had an estimated population of 12.8 million in 2025, will remain one of the region’s most populous cities by 2050, although Angola’s capital, Luanda, is expected to overtake it.

Read also: Nigeria at 66: Why youth population questions national unity

Luanda’s population is projected to increase by 78%, from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million in 2050, making it sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city.

Lagos’ population, meanwhile, is expected to reach 16.2 million, representing an increase of more than 25 perc over the 25-year period.

The projections underscore the scale of the planning challenge facing Lagos, where expanding population numbers will require governments to ensure that infrastructure, housing and transport systems support economic activity and improve access to employment.

The World Bank said the region’s urban transition could become a powerful driver of economic growth and job creation if governments direct investment towards locations where businesses can cluster and workers can easily reach employment opportunities.

“Sub-Saharan Africa’s urban transition can transform the region’s jobs market,” said Paschal Donohoe, World Bank Group managing director and chief knowledge officer.

He said the right investments and reforms in infrastructure, land, connectivity and financing could attract private capital, increase productivity and create formal jobs for millions of young Africans.

The report noted that urban households already spend considerably more per adult than equally educated rural households, reflecting stronger employment and earning opportunities in cities.

However, it warned that realising the economic benefits of urbanisation would require targeted interventions to address the different challenges facing major cities, their expanding peripheries and smaller towns.

Read also: Nigeria’s debt dispute with the World Bank: Who’s actually telling the truth?

For major cities such as Lagos, the bank recommended investing in transport, infrastructure and affordable housing to develop accessible, job-rich economic clusters. It also called for regulatory improvements that would enable businesses and workers to locate closer to economic opportunities.

On the outskirts of rapidly expanding cities, governments should establish road networks and reserve land for essential infrastructure before unplanned development becomes entrenched, the report said.

Beyond Lagos, the report projects significant population increases in other African cities, including Onitsha in Nigeria, whose population is expected to rise from 5.6 million in 2025 to 8.7 million in 2050.

Kano’s population is also projected to increase by 31 percent, although the city is expected to fall out of sub-Saharan Africa’s 15 most populous cities by 2050.

The report also identified opportunities in the region’s more than 15,000 towns, recommending that governments prioritise investment in locations with strong economic and geographic potential, particularly those along transport corridors and near other economic opportunities.

In towns with weaker economic prospects, investment in education and healthcare could help residents connect with stronger labour markets.

The World Bank further called for stronger urban governance and more reliable financing mechanisms to help cities manage expansion and attract private investment.

It recommended using low-cost technology to modernise property tax systems, improve local revenue collection and strengthen city creditworthiness. Better municipal finances could help attract private capital, including through public-private partnerships for infrastructure development.

Read also: Beyond population: Reasons Lagos is Nigeria’s epicentre of rental demand

“Africa’s urban transformation will deliver on its promise only if cities have the institutions and resources to manage growth effectively,” said Mark Roberts, World Bank senior urban economist and co-author of the report.

He said stronger urban governance, more predictable financing and greater accountability were essential to translating rapid urbanisation into better infrastructure, increased investment and more productive jobs.

The report stressed that decisions taken now would shape the region’s urban economies for generations, making early investment in infrastructure, effective planning and stronger institutions critical to ensuring that population growth translates into wider economic opportunities.

For Lagos, the projected increase to 16.2 million residents by 2050 reinforces the importance of aligning urban expansion with infrastructure development, business investment and job creation to sustain the city’s role as a major economic centre.