NJAU: Why Ruto’s defeat in Ol Kalou could reshape Mt Kenya politics

The by-election on
Thursday last week had evolved into a symbolic battle between President Ruto and former
deputy Rigathi Gachagua, after months of bitter rivalry following their falling
out and the DP’s impeachment.

Political analysts
say that for the President, victory would have helped reinforce the narrative
that he still commands significant support in Mt Kenya despite Gachagua’s exit
from government.

Instead, the
outcome in one part of the mountain has emboldened the DCP leader’s camp while prompting analysis and soul-searching
within UDA.

Political analyst
and Juja parliamentary aspirant Waruiru Waithaka during an interview with The Star
argued the Ol Kalou by-election was less about the parliamentary seat and more
about the battle for perception and control of the narrative.

Waithaka argued
that in modern Kenyan politics, perception often shapes political reality,
influencing how voters, aspiring candidates and party leaders position
themselves long before campaigns officially begin.

“The real
contest in Ol Kalou was about perception. Both the
government and the opposition wanted to create the impression that they have
the momentum heading into 2027 because politics is as much about what people
believe as it is about the actual numbers,” he said.

Waithaka said the
significance of the by-election lies not only in who emerged victorious but in
the political narrative it has created.

“In the run-up
to 2027, the battle will increasingly be about who can persuade Kenyans, and
particularly Mt Kenya voters, that they are the movement with the momentum.

“Perception has
become a political currency, and those who successfully shape it stand to
attract more allies, resources and public support.“

Senate Deputy Majority
leader and Nakuru Senator Tabitha Karanja during a recent media briefing this
week openly blamed a powerful clique surrounding President Ruto for the party’s
defeat.

Karanja argued the
Ol Kalou outcome was not a rejection of UDA’s candidate but rather a protest
vote against what she described as arrogance, opulence, violence and
inflammatory rhetoric by some senior leaders allied to the President.

“It is time
the President reconstitutes his inner circle because those around him are
damaging his image and were responsible for what happened in Ol Kalou,”
she said.

She argued that
many elected leaders are quietly reconsidering their political future within
UDA because of dissatisfaction with the conduct of a small but influential
group around the presidency.

“UDA was once
the most popular party in the country, but because of the mistakes of this
small circle, many leaders no longer want to be associated with it as we
approach the next election,” she said.

Meanwhile, Gachagua has seized on the Ol Kalou by-election outcome as evidence that
political momentum in Mt Kenya is shifting away from President Ruto.

Speaking during a
television interview on Wednesday, he said the result did not come as a
surprise, arguing that it merely confirmed what he had observed during months
of grassroots engagements across the region following his fallout with the
President.

“I knew it
would happen. I knew victory was certain. I was only waiting to see the margin
because I know the mountain,” Gachagua said.

The former DP maintained that
the by-election reflects growing public confidence in his political movement
and validates his claim that he remains the dominant political voice in Mt
Kenya.

His allies have
portrayed the victory as a signal that the region is rallying behind his
leadership.

Nyandarua Senator
and DCP secretary-general designate John Methu has intensified the opposition’s
attacks against Ruto, declaring that leaders from different regions are
coordinating efforts to unseat him,

Speaking in an
interview with a local TV station on Sunday, July 19, Methu used combative
language to describe what he termed a nationwide campaign to remove Ruto from
office, saying opposition leaders would mobilise support from every corner of
the country.

“We have to hunt
him down from all directions,” Methu said. “We want the people of Western to
unite and hunt him down from that side. Gachagua will be leading us from Mt
Kenya, and Matiang’i will be uniting with the people from Gusii land. Sifuna
and Natembeya will unite from the Western, and they will hunt him down
from that direction.”

Murang’a Governor
Irungu Kang’ata recently acknowledged that Gachagua remains a formidable
political force in the Mt Kenya region.

“It is true
that Wamunyoro is the voice of that region in terms of his political impact and
therefore we all knew DCP would win. They deserved it because of the effort
they have put in,” Kang’ata said.

Kiamwangi MCA
Kung’u Smart, like others, has argued the DCP win in Ol Kalou is less about the one seat and more
about the message it sends.

Kung’u said the
outcome does not determine the outcome of 2027, but it sends a strong signal
about voters’ mood, at least in one part
of Mt Kenya.

“Politics is driven by perceptions of
where political momentum lies. If leaders conclude that Gachagua currently
enjoys greater grassroots support, some may seek accommodation within his camp
ahead of 2027 and vice versa,” he said.

The New Democrats
(TND) Party leader chairman Thuo Mathenge on Thursday told the Star Gachagua is
currently the most influential political leader in the Mt Kenya region. He said
his party is ready to work with the former DP.

Mathenge said TND
was prepared to either dissolve the party or enter into a coalition with
Gachagua’s DCP to consolidate the region’s political voice.

“As things
stand today, Rigathi Gachagua is the most popular political leader in the Mt
Kenya region,” he said. “Our priority is to unite the region, and if that means
dissolving TND or forming a coalition with DCP, we are ready to do so because
unity is bigger than individual parties.”

DP Kithure Kindiki,
from Tharaka Nithi in Mt Kenya East, vowed not to allow attempts to politically
divide the Mt Kenya region. He spoke during a thanksgiving service for the Embu
Anglican Diocese at St Mark’s Teachers Training College in Kigari, Embu county.

“I don’t want
our people speaking in different voices. We have achieved a lot together, share
a long history, and there is nothing that should divide us,” Kindiki said.

“As Deputy
President, I will do everything possible to ensure Mt Kenya remains united and
that our communities continue to move forward together.”

He also urged the
region to remain firmly behind Ruto, saying his reelection would strengthen Mt
Kenya’s influence in government and provide the clearest path to the region
eventually producing the country’s next head of state.

“We need to
have an honest conversation with our people. After President William Ruto, it
is Mt Kenya’s turn. The other team is far down the queue — they will have to
wait for many years,” Kindiki said.

He spoke just days
after Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku sparked debate by
appearing to draw a political distinction between Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya
West.

Ruku, a close Ruto
ally, said the that following the Ol Kalou outcome, the political mood in Mt
Kenya West should not be taken as representative of the entire region.

“We as Mt
Kenya East do not care what happens in Mt Kenya West,” Ruku posted on
social media.

Laikipia East MP
Mwangi Kiunjuri dismissed suggestions that Gachagua’s political movement poses
a major threat to Ruto’s support in Mt Kenya. He described the former DP’s latest
push as ordinary party politics rather than a political earthquake.

Speaking during a
recent interview on Inooro TV, Kiunjuri downplayed claims of an impending political
tsunami in the region.

“We will not allow
anyone to divide the Mt Kenya region for personal gain; we need our people to
make their own decision without being incited by anyone,” Kiunjuri said.

He urged the people
of the mountain to preach unity, saying people are more interested in economic
development than political rhetoric.

A day after UDA’s
defeat in Ol Kalou, Ruto struck a conciliatory tone, urging leaders to put political
differences aside and focus on delivery of tangible projects and services. He
spoke at State House, Nairobi, while hosting Bungoma county leaders headed by
Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa

Ruto acknowledged
the electorate’s verdict and said the winner deserved respect.

“The people of
Ol Kalou made their choice. Our responsibility now is to work together and
serve them because leaders will ultimately be judged by their performance, not
political rhetoric,” he said.

The President
cautioned against divisive politics, saying leaders should reject attempts to
pit communities against one another.

“Do not allow
those who want to divide us along ethnic lines to succeed. That is foolish
politics,” he said.