Oil prices ease but gasoline inflation lingers; July U.S. CPI seen as turning point for bitcoin

Bitcoin regained the $63,500 level on slowing U.S. jobs data and a weaker dollar, but an analysis said the key variable for further gains is gasoline rather than crude oil.

On July 7, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that the market sees the June consumer price index (CPI), due on July 14, as the next turning point.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said June nonfarm employment rose by just 57,000, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2 percent and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.5 percent. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.56 percent to 100.83 in the same week, and the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September fell to 54 percent from 67 percent.

Market participants see weaker jobs data as reducing the likelihood of additional Fed tightening and, via a weaker dollar, supporting assets with characteristics of real assets such as gold and bitcoin. Gold also hit a two-week high after the data, but gave back some gains as the dollar strengthened again. Bitcoin, meanwhile, stayed above $60,000.

Still, some assessments said it is too early to see this rebound as a trend. Steven Coltman, head of macroeconomics at 21Shares, said the move can persist only if the Fed acknowledges it can return inflation to 2 percent with the current policy rate level alone. He pointed out the Fed needs to accept policy is tight enough to curb inflation without additional rate hikes.

The key issue is how long the oil shock stemming from the Iran war will remain in actual inflation. European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane said an agreement between the United States and Iran has brought oil prices closer to the ECB’s baseline outlook, and the rapid fall in crude prices has reduced the urgency of additional rate hikes. ECB officials, however, warned the energy shock has not yet fully left the economic system.

Judging by crude prices alone, tensions have eased substantially. Brent traded at $72.19 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $68.81, nearing pre-war levels. The move reflected the resumption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s cut to its own prices and OPEC+ raising production targets again.

The problem is that prices consumers feel have remained more strongly in gasoline than in crude. In a normalized one-year chart, gasoline futures rose about 40 percent over the period, while crude returned to near pre-war levels. In the BLS May CPI, gasoline prices rose 7 percent in a month and were up 40.5 percent from a year earlier.

That gap could directly affect the Fed’s policy judgment. Gasoline prices at the pump are the inflation item households feel most sensitively. The New York Fed’s global supply chain pressure index fell to 1.25 in June from 1.81, but stayed above levels before the Iran war.

Energy supply and demand are also not fully stable yet. In U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, refinery utilization was 96.6 percent and gasoline output was 10 million barrels per day. Total gasoline inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels and remained 7 percent below the recent five-year seasonal average. That means even if crude stabilizes, pressure remaining in CPI can continue if gasoline inventories do not rebound quickly.

Monetary policy messages are also mixed. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said after holding the benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent as of June 17 that inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2 percent target, leaving no room to declare victory. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, by contrast, said policy is only at a “somewhat restrictive level” and the next step has not been decided.

Institutional fund flows are also cited as a factor limiting bitcoin’s upside. Citi cut its 12-month target to $82,000 from $112,000 and revised its forecast for this year’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows to zero from $10 billion. The move reflected that $3.3 billion has already flowed out of ETFs this year. Citi presented $53,000 as a bearish scenario if economic slowing and outflows continue.

Ultimately, the market’s focus is on the June CPI due on July 14. It is the first data point to confirm whether the gasoline price uptrend peaked in May or marks the start of a longer move. If gasoline inflation eases, the dollar remains weak and the Fed signals the current policy level is sufficiently restrictive, bitcoin could try to retest $70,000. If gasoline-driven inflation pressure persists and CPI comes in high, expectations for rate hikes could rise again and, with a stronger dollar and ETF outflows, bitcoin’s upside momentum could weaken.