South Africa local elections: ANC under pressure to reverse decline

Verwoerd said in her view, the most stable coalitions would be those that replicate what the ANC and DA have done on a national level, where the historic rivals have agreed to share power.

Reflecting on Cape Town, she said it was unlikely that the DA would lose control of the municipality. The coastal city is widely considered the country’s best-performing metro and has been run by the DA since the late 2000s when it unseated the ANC.

Ethekwini, which includes the port city of Durban in KwaZulu-Natal, would be a “different story”, Verwoerd said.

The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party has been projected to perform well in the area but it is unclear if it will secure the outright majority needed to run the metro. Polls suggest it won’t and will need partners to form a government.

The party was founded by former South African President Jacob Zuma and was the biggest party across his home province of KwaZulu-Natal in the 2024 provincial election.

Verwoerd reflected that while various options were on the table for the party, forming a government would be “very messy” given its refusal to work with either the ANC or DA.

A confident Zuma, addressing supporters on Sunday, vowed to take control of a number of municipalities after the elections.

Another political analyst Dr Levy Ndou echoed Verwoerd’s assessment, saying that a coalition between the DA and ANC seemed unavoidable in most metros.

“We’re not sure whether the arrangement of the government of national unity could have the potential to influence how the metros are going to be run,” he said.

Both experts also spoke about the declining voter turnout in South Africa’s elections. Over 29 million citizens are registered to vote, but the turnout, especially among young people, has seen a steady decline.

Ndou attributed this to the “calibre” of the candidates campaigning and the lack of visibility of local councillors, who are often the ones elected to lead their neighbourhoods, in election campaigns.

South Africa’s electoral commission has seven days to announce the results, but parties have 14 days to form a governing structure.