The price of South Africa’s foreign policy battle

South Africans are feeling the fallout of a geopolitical battle thousands of kilometres away, with rising oil prices threatening to make fuel, food and transport even more expensive.

The US-Israeli military action against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has sent global energy markets into turmoil, with disruption around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz adding further pressure to crude oil prices.

Central Energy Fund data shows that petrol prices have increased cumulatively by R4.74 a litre, while diesel has risen by R6.48 a litre.

Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe has attributed the volatility to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, saying renewed tensions between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude to $100 a barrel.

The impact is not limited to motorists. Higher fuel and transport costs feed directly into the cost of moving food and other goods, while agricultural commodities such as wheat, maize and fertiliser are also vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions and higher input costs.

For South Africa, however, the economic pressure comes against an increasingly complicated relationship with the United States.

Pretoria has continued to pursue an independent foreign policy, including positions on international conflicts and its relationships with countries such as Russia, China and Iran. That approach has increasingly placed South Africa at odds with Washington.

The tensions have played out across several fronts, including tariffs imposed on South African exports, disagreements surrounding the Expropriation Act and cuts to US health funding.

Other diplomatic developments have added to the uncertainty, including Colombia’s decision to close its embassy in Pretoria and tensions involving Spain’s handling of its migrant crisis.

While these developments have different causes and cannot automatically be treated as part of a single US strategy, they have contributed to a broader debate about the consequences of South Africa’s foreign-policy choices.

The central question is whether Pretoria can maintain its strategic independence while limiting the economic fallout for ordinary South Africans.

For households already under pressure, the geopolitical battle is not an abstract diplomatic dispute. It can mean a more expensive trip to the petrol station, higher transport costs and potentially more expensive groceries.

For businesses, particularly those dependent on exports, tariffs and rising energy costs create another layer of pressure, with potential implications for investment and jobs.

The stakes are therefore bigger than the relationship between two governments.

South Africa wants the freedom to determine its own foreign-policy priorities. The United States, meanwhile, has demonstrated that trade, aid and diplomatic relationships can be used as tools of foreign policy.

The question now is how much economic pressure South Africa can absorb while maintaining its position. And ultimately, it is ordinary South Africans who may be left to pay the bill.

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