Categories: Sports

World Cup 2026: Early odds, picks for Round of 32 matches including USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina, South Africa vs. Canada

As the World Cup Round of 32 takes shape, a reminder about how betting works in the knockout stage, because it’s a mistake everyone has made at some point.

By default, most wagers are for regulation time only. In other words, extra time and penalty shootouts don’t count toward most bets. Having said that, some books have started offering bets that explicitly include extra time (or overtime), so beware of what you’re betting.

If you want to pick a team to reach the next round, that bet is typically called “to advance” or “to qualify.” It covers all methods of getting through, whether in regulation, extra time or penalties.

Keeping that in mind, here are my thoughts on each Round-of-32 matchup as they’re confirmed. Remember, that Yahoo Sports’ Soccer Pick ‘Em with FOX ONE reopens as well for the knockout round — so be sure to make your picks!

Sunday, June 28

South Africa double chance (+110) vs. Canada

This might be a knee-jerk reaction to South Africa looking solid against South Korea on Wednesday, while Canada was mediocre for most of its game against Switzerland.

The cumulative tournament numbers for both these teams are mostly worthless, since South Africa was dominated by Mexico when down a man for most of the second half and then down another for the closing minutes, and Canada padded its stats versus nine-man Qatar. Both teams played fairly even in their other two games, all four of which were draws or decided by one goal, so we didn’t learn much.

Canada finishing Group B runner-up hurt in two ways.

First, this game is in Los Angeles instead of Vancouver, so the home-field advantage won’t be a factor. Second, this game is four days earlier than group winner Switzerland plays, and that’s a huge issue for a Canada squad besieged by injuries. Their best player (Alphonso Davies), defender (Moise Bombito) and midfielder (Stephen Eustaquio, who played half a hour vs Switzerland) are all dealing with ailments that leave their statuses unknown for this match.

So these two teams look fairly even but are going opposite directions, with South Africa thrilled to reach a first World Cup knockout stage and Canada disappointed to be playing earlier and away from home. With all the question marks around Canada, I’ll take South Africa on the double chance (win or tie).

Monday, June 29

Japan double chance (+100) vs. Brazil

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I don’t yet trust Brazil against good teams, and Japan is a good team, one that passes and presses and attacks quickly. Japan is capable of defending Vinícius Júnior (as much as anyone is) and of exploiting Brazil’s weak spots, running through the midfield and going after the outside backs.

The Samurai Blue beat Brazil 3-2 in October, coming back from down 2-0 at halftime, and they defeated England 1-0 in March and drew Netherlands in the opener. They can go toe-to-toe with anyone. You might remember four years ago when Japan beat both Germany and Spain in the World Cup group stage, and this Japan team is probably deeper than that one, even if this one lacks a bit of the high-end talent because of injuries.

I trust Japan more than Brazil, and I’ll take even money on Japan to at least get this game to extra time.

Netherlands-Morocco

Netherlands-Morocco over 2.5 goals (+125)

Taking an over in a knockout-stage game always feels suboptimal. Sometimes five minutes have gone by, and it’s clear both teams are fine with going to penalties. That’s a terrible feeling as a bettor, enduring another 85 minutes of hopelessness.

Famous last words, but I don’t see that happening here. Both Netherlands and Morocco like to push their backs forward, particularly Achraf Hakimi and Denzel Dumfries on each team’s right side. Both should create opportunities in attack while leaving space open behind for the opponent to counter.

One might get hesitant when remembering Morocco’s semifinal run last year, as a total of three goals were scored from the Round 16 to the semis. But this version of the Atlas Lions is not as defensive-minded as they were then, and those games still had over seven expected goals total, so the chances were there — even if they weren’t converted.

All three of Netherlands’ games have had at least four goals, and while only one of Morocco’s did, the game versus Brazil easily could have — and Scotland was anemic going forward until the final minutes. I expect this one to be up and down with plenty of scoring chances for one or both teams.

Germany -1.5 (+112) vs Paraguay

This is chalky, but Germany has been so much better than Paraguay thus far, and against better opposition on the whole.

Both teams’ group stage numbers are skewed by outlier games, as Germany routed Curaçao 7-1, and Paraguay scored against Türkiye after 64 seconds, then held on for the 1-0 win while down a man the entire second half.

Thinking about how this game will play out, the Germans are obviously more likely to score first, and I don’t see them parking the bus afterward. Germany’s defense has been average so far, conceding a goal in each match, and head coach Julian Nagelsmann knows his best defense is a good offense. I expect Germany to keep attacking, preferring to pile on goals against a limited offensive team. That’s what the United States did against Paraguay, and Germany should do likewise.

Tuesday, June 30

Ivory Coast-Norway over 2.5 goals (-105) – Tuesday, June 30

All three of Norway’s group games had at least five goals and 3.2 expected goals, so this seems like a gift of a line.

On the other hand, only one of Ivory Coast’s group games had three goals (the 2-1 loss to Germany), though the 1-0 win over Ecuador had 2.5 expected goals, and the 2-0 win over Curaçao could likely have been worse if necessary.

The Elephants have a solid defense, keeping 10 clean sheets in 10 qualifiers, but they obviously didn’t face a striker like Erling Haaland or a Martin Odegaard-powered midfield. Like Germany, Norway’s best defense is more offense. I think that means goals one way or the other, whether as Norway continues to pound the ball to Haaland or Yan Diomande and Ivory Coast run rampant on the counter.

France -1.5 (-108) vs Sweden

I’m not going to bet against a France team that seems able to hang three goals on anyone. Admittedly, France is outpacing its underlying numbers, with 10 goals compared to 6.0 expected goals, but some of that is the pure talent taking the shots, and some is that France excels at the transition game, which is often underestimated by models.

Sweden’s defense was bad in qualifying, and it hasn’t looked much better in this tournament. Sweden conceded five goals to Netherlands and surely would have given up another goal or two to Japan had that game meant more to Samurai Blue.

I’m not sure when (if ever) the time will be to fade France in this tournament, but it certainly isn’t the Round of 32.

Wednesday, July 1

United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina

United States to win first half (-115) vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina

I’ve successfully been riding the U.S. to score a first-half goal all tournament, and I don’t hate that play, though the price is in the -175 range now.

Instead, I’m pivoting to the first-half three-way moneyline, going with the U.S. at -115. The U.S. has played 13 straight games against 2026 World Cup teams, and in 10 of them, the U.S. scored a first-half goal. Bosnia and Herzegovina is in roughly the same tier as Paraguay and Australia, unlikely to open up the game in the first half like Turkiye did against the U.S. second string.

If we spot the U.S. a first-half goal, can Bosnia and Herzegovina get at least one in the first half? The squad has been far from an offensive juggernaut at this tournament, generating a total of 13 shots and 0.5 expected goals from open play. The U.S. has the size to combat Bosnia and Herzegovina’s set pieces, and that should be enough to keep a clean sheet in the first half.

Mauricio Pochettino won’t apply the brakes just because it’s the knockout round, so look for the U.S. to add to its six first-half goals, tied with Brazil for most in the group stage. Christian Pulisic seemed healthy as a second-half sub against Türkiye, and his return to the lineup will make the U.S. even better. The U.S. should be up at halftime en route to a Round of 16 appearance.

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