WP224: Service delivery and political trust: A comparative analysis of countries in sub-Saharan Africa – Afrobarometer

Why do some citizens trust their governments while others do not? In sub-Saharan Africa, where formal accountability mechanisms are often limited and the state is most visibly present through the roads it builds, the schools it runs, and the clinics it staffs, the answer may lie closer to home than the ballot box. When the water flows and the health worker is there, citizens may reward their governments with trust; when services fall short, confidence erodes.

This paper examines the association between perceived service delivery and institutional trust across 39 African countries, drawing on Afrobarometer Round 9 data (N≈53,000) and social-contract and performance-based theoretical perspectives.

A composite service-delivery index captures citizen evaluations of government performance in health, education, water and sanitation, roads, and electricity, and was analysed alongside trust in the president, Parliament, courts, and local government using a survey-weighted negative binomial regression model.

The findings show that citizens who report better service-delivery experiences are more likely to trust political institutions, a pattern that holds across all four institutions, though it is more pronounced for the president and Parliament than for courts and local government.

Health and education emerge as the service domains most strongly associated with trust. Rural residents report higher levels of trust than urbanites, while more educated citizens tend to express greater scepticism. Our findings suggest that in contexts where formal democratic accountability mechanisms remain limited, service delivery becomes a key mechanism through which citizens evaluate their governments and decide how much confidence to place in them.