Categories: Opinion

Africa on the Move: Decoding Emerging Political and Digital Patterns

July 2026

Summer is in full swing in Washington, as the Carnegie Africa Program revs up analysis on geopolitical, economic, and technological trends shaping Africa’s present and future. Political actors on the continent are leveraging Africa’s growing global attractiveness to enhance their national positions and navigate geopolitical shifts, and Africa Program scholars have been decoding the implications of these dynamics for policymakers. Scholars focused their research and briefings on inevitable—yet uncertain—political transitions; on data and digital governance; on strategic reform of U.S.-Africa trade; and on how geopolitics and international finance shape national politics. 

We’re keeping an eye on how geopolitics, commercial diplomacy, and governance developments are converging across the continent. Writing on politics in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Christian-Géraud Neema highlights the potential risks in the governing coalition–Union Sacrée de la Nation–using the U.S.-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement as an excuse to amend the country’s constitution. In a piece with World Politics Review (WPR), Lesley Anne Warner examines three countries with impending political transitions due to aging leaders and explores the systematic erosion of constitutional mechanisms for predictable succession. Separately, writing for Carnegie, Lesley analyzes the intense rivalry between Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and former Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko on approaches to debt servicing, with implications for the country’s near-term political future—a story that has continued to develop as Faye launched a new political party. We’ve also been tracking China’s diplomatic maneuverings on the continent. In a piece for WPR, Lesley details how China’s coercive diplomacy pushes African states to adhere to the “One China” policy. One key example is the Zambian government’s cancellation of RightsCon in Lusaka, which Jane Munga and Steven Feldstein examine in a piece for Just Security. Jane and Steve note that the cancellation decision reflects a broader trend of democratic erosion in Zambia.  

This summer, our technology research team has been focusing on the intersections of health, data, and governance. In a commentary on the U.S.-Kenya deal involving a controversial U.S. Ebola facility, Jane Munga examines the deal’s potential consequences for African agency. Delving further into this bilateral relationship, Jane’s recent article explains the opportunities for U.S.-Africa AI partnerships that could be explored through Technology Prosperity Deals. Jane also released a video explaining how data governance shapes Africa’s digital connectivity and economy. The video expands on her piece from April of this year that draws on new data from the Africa Technology Policy Tracker (AfTech) to explain the continent’s tech transformation priorities and focus on digital infrastructure. Elsewhere, Jane’s recent Lawfare piece explains how data protection laws in Africa can become important levers in negotiating better health aid agreements with the U.S. Her work has also been recently featured in ProPublica and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. And if you’re still looking for your summer beach read, check out Jane’s recent review of Joe Studwell’s new book, How Africa Works, in Lawfare, where she also shares insights on the role of the digital economy in Africa’s development story. 

On Capitol Hill, Fonteh Akum and Tyler Beckelman briefed staff from the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on the strategic stakes of reform and renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Undergirding these briefings were insights gleaned from our recent roundtable on the future of the U.S.-Africa trade relationship and the recent article on AGOA by Tyler Beckelman and Kholofelo Kugler. Fonteh also spoke at a panel discussion of the U.S. Africa Policy Working Group, focused on democratic backsliding and the challenges of enabling stable environments for American investment in volatile regions experiencing undemocratic transfers of power.  

Fonteh Akum provided the keynote address at the International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent’s Africa Regional Annual Planning Meeting where he spoke on enhancing humanitarian effectiveness by addressing key systemic stressors, shocks, and shifts.  

Lastly, we are thrilled to announce a new addition to the Carnegie Africa Program: Judd Devermont has joined the team as a non-resident scholar. Judd brings to the Africa Program over two decades of experience across the federal government, private sector, and academia. Stay tuned for more work about the African continent from our world-class scholars. Follow us on LinkedIn, and on X @AfricaCarnegie

Chart of the Month

Our chart uses AfTech to analyze the 16 African national AI strategies that have been released thus far. We mapped key themes mentioned in the strategy documents to the capabilities needed for AI uptake, as outlined in the 2025 Africa Declaration on Artificial Intelligence.  

This guiding document for AI implementation outlines the following key capabilities needed to operationalize AI in Africa: Talent and skilling; Data ecosystems, safeguards, and privacy protections; Compute infrastructure; Pan-African market development; Financial investment across the entire AI delivery-chain; Responsible and harmonized governance frameworks; and Institutional collaboration. Our chart of the month reflects overlaps between the national strategies and the continental declaration. Our data also reveals a commitment to meeting the energy requirements of AI, albeit to a lesser extent than the other priorities listed.  

Features

Another Commission for Global AI Governance. How Can It Deliver for Africa? 

On July 2, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the United Nations specialized agency for digital technologies, launched the AI for Good Global Commission in Geneva. It must now be translated into tangible solutions to real-world challenges. 

By Jane Munga 

Read in TechPolicy Press 

 

Will the U.S.-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement Endanger U.S. Interests in the DRC? 

President Tshisekedi is implicating Washington in his pursuit of a third term. Staying silent may prove detrimental to the United States in the long run. 

By Christian-Géraud Neema 

Read the Article 

 

A Kenya Technology Prosperity Deal Could Help Washington Secure Durable AI Partnerships with Africa 

To carry out its global AI agenda, Washington will need strategic relationships with emerging markets in Africa, starting with Kenya. 

By Jane Munga 

Read the Article 

 

In Africa’s Old Guard Regimes, Dynastic Succession Plans Raise Stability 

In the first half of 2026, three of Africa’s longest-serving leaders have moved to extend their grip on power, accelerating speculation on succession dynamics within their countries.  

By Lesley Anne Warner 

Read in World Politics Review 

 

The Bigger Problem with the U.S.-Kenya Deal 

Washington’s transactional foreign policy is making it indistinguishable from Beijing’s, with consequential implications for African agency. 

By Jane Munga 

Read the Commentary 

 

Senegal’s Debt Crisis Has Moved Its Leaders from Partners to Rivals 

The impacts of the Faye-Sonko rupture could go well beyond the country’s borders. 

By Lesley Anne Warner 

Read the Commentary 

 

In Addition to Chinese Pressure, a Backsliding Democracy May Explain Zambia’s Decision to Cancel a Major Human Rights Summit 

Events playing out in Zambia act as a reminder that responsible digital governance requires more than legislation.  

By Jane Munga and Steve Feldstein 

Read in Just Security 

 

Locked In: How African Data Protection Laws Move from Shield to Lever 

African countries have spent a decade constructing the legal architecture that gives them standing to say no to data arrangements that do not serve their interests.  

By Jane Munga 

Read in Lawfare 

 

India-Africa Strategic Partnership: Challenges, Potential and Possible Pathways 

This article spells out the existing challenges to the India-Africa strategic partnership, its optimal potential, and possible pathways to realize it over the next quarter-century.  

By Rajiv Bhatia 

Read the Article 

 

From the Archive

In August 2024, Jane Munga published the piece “Kenya Is at an Inflection Point. It Needs a New Path to Progress,” where she examined the implications of Kenya’s Gen Z protests on the country’s political landscape. Shortly before the two-year anniversary of the original unrest, protests broke out in response to a proposed U.S. Ebola facility in Kenya. Jane’s commentary, “The Bigger Problem with the U.S.-Kenya Ebola Deal,” explores the deal’s potential consequences for African agency. 

Black Hot Fire Network Team

BHFN Editorial Team covers breaking news, culture, and global developments impacting Black America, Africa, Kenya, and the African diaspora. Focused on timely reporting and community-driven perspectives, the team delivers news, analysis, and stories that inform, connect, and amplify diverse voices.

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