Agroprocessing, fintech and blue economy, East Africa’s next frontiers of growth – experts

East Africa’s trade growth potential is still being constrained by deep structural bottlenecks in logistics, regulatory fragmentation and underdeveloped trade infrastructure.

Speaking during an investor forum event in Nairobi organised by NCBA, experts drawn from trade development agencies, the European Union (EU) and private sector advisory roles painted a mixed picture of a region rich in opportunity but weighed down by inefficiencies that continue to slow cross-border commerce and scale-up of businesses.

They noted that while digitisation is rapidly reshaping how goods and services move across borders, East Africa’s trade systems remain largely anchored in legacy infrastructure that was originally designed for overseas export markets rather than regional integration.

This mismatch, they warned, has created persistent inefficiencies in payments, logistics coordination and customs processing within the region.

“There is a clear shift in where trade is moving, and digitisation is becoming central to how economies integrate and scale. Reforms such as one-stop border posts and smart trade corridors are critical to eliminating delays and reducing friction at borders,” said a representative from TradeMark Africa.

However, despite such innovations, experts cautioned that payment systems across the region remain fragmented, while logistics networks are not fully aligned to support seamless intra-African trade.

The absence of harmonised systems continues to slow down regional value chains, making cross-border business more complex and costly than necessary.

“There is still a fundamental mismatch between the systems we inherited and the type of trade we are trying to build today,” one of the experts noted during the discussions.

The forum also highlighted regulatory fragmentation as a major constraint, with disparities in trade laws across East African markets limiting the ease of doing business.

Experts pointed out that it is, in some cases, easier for firms to expand outside the continent than to move between neighbouring East African countries due to inconsistent legal and administrative frameworks.

“There are still too many barriers created not by geography, but by policy differences that make regional trade unnecessarily complex,” Wathingira Gituro, partner at Bowmans, observed.

The discussion further underscored the lack of specialised legal and advisory services focused on trade law as a structural gap holding back SMEs and investors seeking to scale across borders.

On sectoral opportunities, experts identified agro-processing, digital trade, fintech, and the blue economy as the most promising areas for investment in the short to medium term.

These sectors, they said, carry strong potential for job creation if supported by improved infrastructure, financing and regulatory alignment.

Agro-industrial value addition was particularly highlighted as a missed opportunity, with calls for a shift from raw exports to processed goods that capture more value locally.

The digital economy, especially fintech, was also flagged as a fast-growing space where East Africa could position itself as a global innovation hub.

In addition, the blue economy, anchored on ports, logistics and maritime trade, was cited as a critical frontier for regional growth, given that the vast majority of Africa’s trade moves through sea routes.

The expert forum also stressed the importance of strengthening public-private dialogue, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to reduce non-tariff barriers, and fully utilising existing trade agreements to unlock export potential.

A senior EU trade representative, Filipo Amato, speaking at the forum, emphasised the need to move beyond raw exports towards value addition, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing.

“We would like to see not just the export of raw materials, but the export of processed agricultural products that retain more value within the region,” Amato said.

He further pointed to textile and garment manufacturing as a high-potential sector, arguing that East Africa could position itself as a global competitor if supported by the right trade frameworks and investment climate.

“We want to see Kenya and the region become a powerhouse for textile and garment exports, just as other developing economies have done successfully,” he added.

Amato also underscored the growing importance of digital trade, noting that Africa’s digital economy is projected to reach €600 billion by 2050, and highlighting Kenya’s emerging role as a regional digital hub under structured EU cooperation frameworks.

On unlocking regional trade potential, he stressed the need for stronger collaboration between governments and the private sector, warning that unresolved issues such as taxation unpredictability, VAT refund delays and regulatory inconsistencies continue to weigh on investor confidence.

“Strengthen private-public dialogue because what drives growth is the private sector,” he said.

He also urged full implementation of trade agreements and deeper harmonisation under AfCFTA, noting that non-tariff barriers cost the continent billions of dollars annually in lost trade opportunities.

Despite these challenges, experts agreed that East Africa stands at a pivotal moment, with the convergence of digital transformation, infrastructure investments and trade reforms offering a pathway to position the region as a major global trade and investment hub.

This is if structural bottlenecks are addressed decisively.