Kenya’s delicate energy balancing act in face of rationing

This refers to a scenario where the electricity distributor, in this case Kenya Power is forced to cut off supplies to some customers mainly during peak demand hours (from 1830hours to 2200hours).

These are scheduled and last for a defined period, allowing for restoration of a balance in demand and supply of electricity.

Kenya Power rations supply (load shedding) to shield the national grid when supply from wind and solar plants drop to near zero, thus creating a gap that hydro plants, geothermal and imports are unable to fill. The rationing ensures that demand does not outweigh supply.

Rationing cushions the grid and helps avoid countrywide blackouts tied to a mismatch in uptake and supply of electricity.

Despite its importance in protecting the national grid, power rationing is a headache to businesses and households. This is because most are forced to set up back-ups mainly solar systems in order to minimise the interruptions, adding to their bills and operational costs.

Currently, figures on impact of power outages in Kenya are not available. However, countries such as South Africa have incurred losses estimated at ZAR3 trillion (Sh23.8 trillion) since 2007.

The World Bank estimates that Nigeria loses $29 billion (Sh3.75 trillion) annually due to the persistent rationing and blackouts.

There are nine wind and solar plants that contribute a combined 16 percent of the total power that Kenya Power buys from electricity producers in a year.

LTWP is, however, the single biggest source amongst the nine, supplying 10 percent of this electricity while the other eight plants contribute the remaining six percent.

Disruptions in supply from LTWP have on several occasions triggered a nationwide blackout, highlighting the impact that this plant has in ensuring a steady supply of power.

Power rationing woes are mainly tied to the freeze on new power plants which meant that local generation has significantly trailed demand.

Kenya Power was barred from signing new Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) since 2018, as the government bought time to scrutinise existing deals blamed for costly power.

Demand has since 2018 grown with new industries and home connections driving uptake. Local generation is not able to meet this demand, triggering the rationing and increased dependence on Ethiopia and Uganda to boost supplies.

Power rationing was persistent in the 1990s when Kenya grappled with generation challenges but this changed when investors entered the space on a push from the World Bank.

Bigger economies such as South Africa and Nigeria ration electricity on a much wide scale and due to a combination of factors, some with daily countrywide blackouts lasting for hours.

South Africa has since 2007 turned to countrywide power rationing due to ageing generation plants, dilapidated transmission and distribution lines and the need to reduce use of coal-powered power plants.

Coal-fired power plants supply about 70 percent of the power in South Africa, but the country has been forced to lower the use of these plants as part of cutting carbon emissions.

Nigeria on the other hand, has been forced to ration power across the country due to inadequate supply of gas to the thermal plants and also an aging grid, which is vulnerable to collapse.

Zambia, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Niger, Burundi and Benin are the other African countries grappling with severe power rationing.

Mini-grids have turned out to be key in resolving the headache of power outages and blackouts across Africa. Kenya has employed a number of these plants to light up communities with no access to the national grid.

In Africa, the World Bank and African Development Bank are jointly running a project dubbed Mission 300. This scheme targets to connect 300 million to electricity in Africa by 2030. Kenya is one of the beneficiaries of this project.

African economies have also created five regional power pools where those with excess electricity like Ethiopia and Egypt can sell it to those in deficits.

These power pools are for the Southern, Eastern, Western, Central and Northern. Kenya belongs to the Eastern Power Pool.

Kenya is betting on increasing the generation from the country’s vast geothermal reserves and hydros to shore up the baseload supply.

Other moves include fast-tracking the onboarding of new power plants, increasing imports from Ethiopia from December this year and also tapping more electricity from Uganda.