Treasury yields move ahead of inflation data release

U.S. Treasury yields experienced minimal movement Friday as investors anticipated the release of key economic data. The data includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and the fourth-quarter gross domestic product report.

Treasury Yields

As of 4:10 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield increased less than one basis point to 4.076%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield also rose negligibly to 4.705%. The 2-year Treasury note yield remained unchanged at 3.47%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and yields and prices move inversely.

Economic Data Anticipation

Investors are closely watching indicators of the U.S. economy. The personal consumption expenditures index and the fourth-quarter gross domestic product report are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate the PCE report will show headline inflation increasing to 2.8% annually. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to have risen 3% year-over-year.

The GDP report is expected to indicate a 2.5% increase in real GDP, according to economists polled by Dow Jones.

Supreme Court and Geopolitical Factors

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling regarding the legality of former President Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, potentially on Friday or next week.

Market participants are also observing developments related to tensions between the U.S. and Iran. President Donald Trump indicated he will decide within the next 10 days whether to authorize military action against Iran.