The big recent development in markets has been traders flirting with the possibility of a much earlier than expected interest rate increase from the US Federal Reserve at its next meeting at the end of this month, or in September. This could be a game changer globally for all asset prices.
Prior to last week’s June inflation data, the probability of a July rate rise from the Fed was priced as an even bet, given a growing sense that its new chair, Kevin Warsh, might be a closet “hawk”. Following the soft June print, that was slashed to around a one-in-10 prospect.
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