Abnormally warm weather has swelled over the central and northern states this week, setting hundreds of records. Now some of this warmth is oozing toward the East Coast.
Central, eastern U.S. bask in record winter warmth
Written by Black Hot Fire Network on February 9, 2024
Since the beginning of February, temperatures in the nation’s northern tier have climbed to nearly 40 degrees above normal at times. Many places that are typically buried in snow have bare ground and temperatures more typical of springtime.
Minneapolis, where there’s no snow, has spent much of this week with highs in the 50s, setting records on Tuesday and Thursday; its average high in early February is in the mid-20s.
“I’ve seen reports of tick sightings, tulips popping up, even a few (very early) baseball practices. What month is this again?,” wrote meteorologist Paul Douglas in his weather column for the Minnesota Star Tribune.
The warm spell is reminiscent of the weather in December when many of the same areas experienced extraordinary warmth. Parts of northern Minnesota had no snow cover on Christmas for the first time. During the month, 31,230 warm-weather records were set in the United States, compared to only 53 cold-weather records.
The El Niño climate pattern is known to tilt the odds toward mild winters in the northern United States, and this year’s pattern is the fifth-strongest on record.
In addition to El Niño, human-caused climate change from the burning of fossil fuels is also increasing the likelihood of such exceptional warmth. The Copernicus Climate Service of the European Union announced Thursday that the planet posted its warmest January on record and that the last 12 months averaged more than 1.5 Celsius above preindustrial levels for the first time.
There are signs, however, that this warm spell will end from west to east over the weekend into early next week.
How the warmth has evolved and the records set
Record warmth began the week stretched from the Desert Southwest into the Upper Midwest and slowly progressed eastward.
As the atmospheric wave responsible for the early-week California deluge shifted east, it helped draw springlike humidity northward toward Canada. On Thursday, Wisconsin saw its first February tornado, as high temperatures in parts of the state exceeded previous records by around 10 degrees.
Ahead of the severe storms, much of the Midwest was bathed in record warmth. Places that set calendar day record highs Thursday included Cedar Rapids, Iowa, at 66 degrees; Rockford, Ill., at 59 degrees; and La Crosse, Wis., at 59 degrees.
Through Thursday, several weather observing locations had notched multiple record highs this month, including:
- 5 in Waterloo, Iowa.
- 4 in Sault Ste Marie, Mich.
- 3 in Rockford, Ill.
- 2 in Green Bay, Wis., and others
Multiple cities have also set record-warm low temperatures, including North Platte, Neb.; Sioux Falls, S.D.; and Huron, S.D. — which have seen five this month.
So far, February is the warmest or second-warmest on record for most of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, according to Weather Service data. Most of Minnesota is running at least 20 degrees above normal for the month. The average temperature in Fargo, N.D., was running 27 degrees above normal through Thursday.
Because of the extent of bare ground in typically snowy locations, snow covered just 27.6 percent of the contiguous United States as of Friday morning, one of the three lowest percentages on record for the date.
Record warmth spreading east
Temperatures surging into the 50s and 60s are predicted to topple more records in the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday and in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday. Dozens of record-warm lows are forecast in the same areas through the weekend.
Record highs that are in jeopardy on Friday, some 20 to 30 degrees above normal, include:
- Detroit: Forecast is 63 degrees; record is 56 degrees in 2001.
- Fort Wayne, Ind.: Forecast is 61 degrees; record is 61 degrees in 2001.
- Syracuse, N.Y.: Forecast is 59 degrees; record is 59 degrees in 1902.
On Saturday, the following records highs — about 15 to 25 degrees above normal — are possible:
- Washington Dulles International Airport: Forecast is 63 degrees; record is 63 degrees in 2001.
- Hartford: Forecast is 56 degrees; record is 55 degrees in 1909.
- Albany, N.Y.: Forecast is 55 degrees; record is 53 degrees in 1955.
- Burlington, Vt.: Forecast is 52 degrees; record is 46 degrees in 2001.
Toledo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Washington and Roanoke could all set record-warm lows over the weekend as morning temperatures are forecast to be 30 to 40 degrees above normal over a large area.
As a cold front pushes through the Midwest and sweeps off the East Coast early next week, the widespread unseasonable warmth will come to a conclusion.
While the weather pattern will turn chillier, there is no concrete signal for an extreme outbreak of bitter cold. An active jet stream across the southern United States may mean cool, stormy weather from California across the South and toward the East Coast, but extreme cold may continue to elude the north-central states.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.